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Weather Reports: Sometimes Unreliable, Always Essential. By Curt Epperson

The San Juans and the Gulf Islands offer some of the best cruising in the world. But the rain shadows behind the Olympic Mountains and Vancouver Island can make weather predictions difficult. Sometimes that “Pacific high pressure ridge” just refuses to build or to stay in place and sometimes that “weak low” just refuses to remain weak. The best practice is to listen to the VHF weather information and the predictions and to plan your cruising accordingly. But it can be tempting to disregard the weather “synopsis” after several days of inaccuracy. If that temptation has ever crept into your cruising agenda, read on.

A few years ago our plans included Nanaimo and then north to Hornby Island . Hornby lies in the Georgia Strait about 40 miles north of Nanaimo . Getting there can be a bit of a rough ride if the winds blow from the northwest.

We spent a night on the hook at Clam Bay then left in the morning to catch a slack tide through Dodd Narrows . Even though the weather report called for light easterly winds we beat northward into 20 – 25 knots and arrived at the Narrows 40 minutes late. We motored through against 2 knots of current then slogged toward Nanaimo with rollers and white caps spraying off our rail. In howling winds we maneuvered into the last space at the Nanaimo marina. We decided to try and get north to Hornby the next morning.

Despite predictions of light air the next day brought more 25-knot winds from the northwest. We chose to motor across the bay and enjoy the delights of Newcastle Island , one of the best marine parks in British Columbia . I was beginning to get a little cynical about the weather reports.

Two days later we gave up waiting for the head winds to ease as predicted. I listened to the VHF intently, muttering quietly, “How hard can this be?” The low pressure west of the Queen Charlottes didn’t move east. It stayed in place offshore and a weak ridge of high pressure directed winds from the north toward us.

Finally, practicality mixed with resignation intervened and we decided to enjoy the wind rather than fight it. We headed south and rode the northwesterly on a delightful beam reach to Preedy Harbor and then to Genoa Bay . (Both days called for moderate southeast winds that never materialized.)

Finally the NOAA guy threw in the towel and predicted moderate to strong northwest winds. However, after 6 days of continued inaccuracy I decided to ignore the predictions. I carefully explained my “logic” to Mary. Did I detect some skepticism from her? Well, yes. But since I was going to ignore the weather predictions why not also ignore Mary’s cautious questions? We headed out to Cabbage Island .

Cabbage Island is a nice little marine park encompassing a small island with 100 miles of fetch northwest up Georgia Strait. The small “bay” is situated for use in fair weather with no wind. (Its not a place to drop the hook but the buoys are numerous.) We motored to the island and tied up to spend the night even though the forecast called for winds from the northwest. I decided to give less credence to the outlook. So did 14 other boats, two of which anchored on one hook in the bay between Cabbage Island and Tumbo Island . Big mistake.

The weather report became accurate with a vengeance at about 2:00am. The wind picked up and the rollers started coming on strong. I woke up, scrambled to the bow and tied another line to the buoy as insurance. We bounced and pounded and lifted the buoy clear out of the water. I suppose the NOAA meteorologists were happy to finally be right but I wasn’t nearly so pleased.

At about 7:00am I tumbled out of the v-berth, adjusted my sea legs to the pitch and roll, and put on the coffee. Mary followed shortly thereafter and told me about the 34’ Chris Craft that had to break free from its shared hook at about 5:30am. (She was up at that time, no doubt wondering if there is a legal cause of action against husbands who disregard weather predictions.) She mentioned that the Chris Craft had set an anchor over near the trees along the shore of Tumbo Island . Our binoculars told a different story.

Yes, they were close to the trees. The boat was resting on the rocks, ten feet from the woods. The anchor rode went from the bow roller, over the rocks, down the ledge, and into the bay. Oops.

Mary explained that she saw them maneuvering about the bay at about 5:30 am. I checked the tide tables. At 5:30am the tide was at about 13.5 feet. The next high tide would be at 6:30 pm, with 14.5 feet of water. Yikes. I wondered if this would be a tow or a salvage.

A Marine Assist vessel arrived just before the Canadian Coast Guard and they all went ashore. The Coast Guard determined no lives were in danger (just egos, props, and shafts). At 6:00 pm a larger towboat arrived and waited while the Chris Craft kedged off the ledge into the bay. They towed her away as twilight began at about 7:00pm.

That night was calm, clear, and gorgeous. Also un-crowded since most everyone left during the day, not wanting to risk another night of bouncing. We enjoyed the star-lit skies, warm temperatures, and more than usual privacy.

There are always lessons to be learned while sailing, cruising, or dropping the hook. I usually listen to the weather predictions at least twice a day. However, I learned once again that listening is only half the story. No matter how many days pass with reports that don’t materialize, paying attention and believing is still important. I think the guy with the Chris Craft would agree.

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